Potentially disruptive technologies

So far, this chapter has focused on trends currently in progress and the potential effects of their extension into the future. As with the introduction of the transistor, we saw that it is always possible that some new technology will appear that creates a drastic break from past experience and leads the future of computing technology in a new direction.

In this section, we attempt to identify some potential sources of such technological advances in the coming years.

Quantum physics

Charles Babbage’s Analytical Engine tried to take the capabilities of purely mechanical computing devices to an extreme that had not been achieved previously. His attempt, while ambitious, was ultimately unsuccessful. The development of practical automated computing devices had to wait until the introduction of vacuum tube technology provided a suitable basis for the implementation of complex digital logic.

Later, the invention of the transistor...