You're reading from Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel Perform data grouping, linear predictions, and time series machine learning statistics without using code

Product type Paperback

Published in May 2022

Publisher Packt

ISBN-13 9781803247731

Length 324 pages

Edition 1st Edition

Languages

C++

Tools

Excel

Concepts

Data Analysis

Author (1):

Fernando Roque

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Table of Contents (19) Chapters

Preface

1. Part 1 – An Introduction to Machine Learning Functions

2. Chapter 1: Understanding Data Segmentation FREE CHAPTER

3. Chapter 2: Applying Linear Regression

4. Chapter 3: What is Time Series?

5. Part 2 – Grouping Data to Find Segments and Outliers

6. Chapter 4: Introduction to Data Grouping

7. Chapter 5: Finding the Optimal Number of Single Variable Groups

8. Chapter 6: Finding the Optimal Number of Multi-Variable Groups

9. Chapter 7: Analyzing Outliers for Data Anomalies

10. Part 3 – Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

11. Chapter 8: Finding the Relationship between Variables

12. Chapter 9: Building, Training, and Validating a Linear Model

13. Chapter 10: Building, Training, and Validating a Multiple Regression Model

14. Part 4 – Predicting Values with Time Series

15. Chapter 11: Testing Data for Time Series Compliance

16. Chapter 12: Working with Time Series Using the Centered Moving Average and a Trending Component

17. Chapter 13: Training, Validating, and Running the Model

18. Other Books You May Enjoy

Producing the forecast – season and trend line

Now, we are ready to make the forecast. We are going to multiply the season component by the trend (regression) line to make a prediction for the following years. The concept behind this calculation is that every period of time (in this case, quarters) has an upper or lower inclination given by the seasonal component. The seasonal component moves up or down the trend line, depending on the predictive behavior for this lapse (we're using quarters in this example). The forecast for Year 6 and Year 7 is shown in Figure 12.6:

Figure 12.9 – Our forecast for years 6 and 7

A forecast is just an approximation of what could happen in the future based on past data. Visualize the sales by quarter for the 5 years of data we have, and note that the sales increase after the third quarter every year, despite sales suffering significant drops in Year 3 and Year 4. This performance is reflected by the forecast...

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You're reading from Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel Perform data grouping, linear predictions, and time series machine learning statistics without using code

Table of Contents (19) Chapters

Producing the forecast – season and trend line

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You're reading from Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel Perform data grouping, linear predictions, and time series machine learning statistics without using code

Table of Contents (19) Chapters

Producing the forecast – season and trend line

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