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Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

You're reading from   Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel Perform data grouping, linear predictions, and time series machine learning statistics without using code

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Product type Paperback
Published in May 2022
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781803247731
Length 324 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Fernando Roque Fernando Roque
Author Profile Icon Fernando Roque
Fernando Roque
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Table of Contents (19) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Part 1 – An Introduction to Machine Learning Functions
2. Chapter 1: Understanding Data Segmentation FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Applying Linear Regression 4. Chapter 3: What is Time Series? 5. Part 2 – Grouping Data to Find Segments and Outliers
6. Chapter 4: Introduction to Data Grouping 7. Chapter 5: Finding the Optimal Number of Single Variable Groups 8. Chapter 6: Finding the Optimal Number of Multi-Variable Groups 9. Chapter 7: Analyzing Outliers for Data Anomalies 10. Part 3 – Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
11. Chapter 8: Finding the Relationship between Variables 12. Chapter 9: Building, Training, and Validating a Linear Model 13. Chapter 10: Building, Training, and Validating a Multiple Regression Model 14. Part 4 – Predicting Values with Time Series
15. Chapter 11: Testing Data for Time Series Compliance 16. Chapter 12: Working with Time Series Using the Centered Moving Average and a Trending Component 17. Chapter 13: Training, Validating, and Running the Model 18. Other Books You May Enjoy

Finding an optimal number of groups for one variable

The first task to solve grouping statistics is to find out the optimal number of groups for our data. Remember these facts by looking at Figure 5.1. Minimize the distance of each group point to its centroid or group average.

The optimal distance is a small standard deviation result of the group data. Data that is at a large distance from the group centroid is an outlier. This means that we need to further research these points because they could represent risky behavior.

Knowing these facts, look at Figure 5.1 and see how difficult it is to decide, at a glance, how many groups have the optimal sales per product and the number of absent hours due to sickness for a human resources case study:

Figure 5.1 – A: Revenue per country, B: Absent hours per disease and month

To get the optimal number of groups, we need the K-means elbow algorithm chart. Choose the number where the curve starts to get flat...

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