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Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

You're reading from   Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel Perform data grouping, linear predictions, and time series machine learning statistics without using code

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Product type Paperback
Published in May 2022
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781803247731
Length 324 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Fernando Roque Fernando Roque
Author Profile Icon Fernando Roque
Fernando Roque
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Table of Contents (19) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Part 1 – An Introduction to Machine Learning Functions
2. Chapter 1: Understanding Data Segmentation FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Applying Linear Regression 4. Chapter 3: What is Time Series? 5. Part 2 – Grouping Data to Find Segments and Outliers
6. Chapter 4: Introduction to Data Grouping 7. Chapter 5: Finding the Optimal Number of Single Variable Groups 8. Chapter 6: Finding the Optimal Number of Multi-Variable Groups 9. Chapter 7: Analyzing Outliers for Data Anomalies 10. Part 3 – Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
11. Chapter 8: Finding the Relationship between Variables 12. Chapter 9: Building, Training, and Validating a Linear Model 13. Chapter 10: Building, Training, and Validating a Multiple Regression Model 14. Part 4 – Predicting Values with Time Series
15. Chapter 11: Testing Data for Time Series Compliance 16. Chapter 12: Working with Time Series Using the Centered Moving Average and a Trending Component 17. Chapter 13: Training, Validating, and Running the Model 18. Other Books You May Enjoy

Grouping data in segments of two and three variables

Now, we are going to segment data with two variables. Several real-world problems need to group two or more variables to classify data where one variable influences the other. For example, we can use the month number and the sales revenue dataset to find out the time of the year with higher and lower sales. We will use online marketing and sales revenue. Figure 1.8 shows the four segments of the data and the relationship between online marketing investment and revenue. We can see that segments 1, 2, and 4 are relatively compact. The exception is segment 3 because it has a point that appears to be an outlier. This outlier will affect the average and the standard deviation of the segment:

Figure 1.8 – Grouping with two variables

Figure 1.8 – Grouping with two variables

Segment 4 appears to have the smallest standard deviation. This group looks compact. Segment 2 also appears to be compact and it has a high value of revenue.

In Figure 1.9, we will find out the mean and the standard deviation of segment 2:

Figure 1.9 – Segment two mean and standard deviation

Figure 1.9 – Segment two mean and standard deviation

As we are analyzing two variables, the centroid of the segment has two coordinates: the online marketing spend and the revenue.

The mean has the following coordinates:

  • Online marketing: 5.04
  • Revenue: 204.11

In Figure 1.9, the centroid is at these coordinates.

The standard deviation of online marketing is 1.53, and for revenue, it is 76.63.

The limits of the revenue are the black lines. They are 160 and 280. So, segment two is not compact because the majority of points are between 160 and 210 with an outlier close to 280.

When we analyze data with three variables, the mean and the standard deviation are represented by three coordinates. Figure 1.10 shows data with three variables and the segment that each of them belongs to:

Figure 1.10 – Segments with three variables

Figure 1.10 – Segments with three variables

The mean and standard deviation have three coordinates. For example, for segment three, these are the coordinates:

Figure 1.11 – Mean and standard deviation coordinates with three variables

Figure 1.11 – Mean and standard deviation coordinates with three variables

The standard deviation of revenue is large, 13.73. This means the points are widely scattered from the centroid, 15.8. This segment probably does not give accurate information because the points are not compact.

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Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel
Published in: May 2022
Publisher: Packt
ISBN-13: 9781803247731
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