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Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

You're reading from   Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel Perform data grouping, linear predictions, and time series machine learning statistics without using code

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Product type Paperback
Published in May 2022
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781803247731
Length 324 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Fernando Roque Fernando Roque
Author Profile Icon Fernando Roque
Fernando Roque
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Table of Contents (19) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Part 1 – An Introduction to Machine Learning Functions
2. Chapter 1: Understanding Data Segmentation FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Applying Linear Regression 4. Chapter 3: What is Time Series? 5. Part 2 – Grouping Data to Find Segments and Outliers
6. Chapter 4: Introduction to Data Grouping 7. Chapter 5: Finding the Optimal Number of Single Variable Groups 8. Chapter 6: Finding the Optimal Number of Multi-Variable Groups 9. Chapter 7: Analyzing Outliers for Data Anomalies 10. Part 3 – Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
11. Chapter 8: Finding the Relationship between Variables 12. Chapter 9: Building, Training, and Validating a Linear Model 13. Chapter 10: Building, Training, and Validating a Multiple Regression Model 14. Part 4 – Predicting Values with Time Series
15. Chapter 11: Testing Data for Time Series Compliance 16. Chapter 12: Working with Time Series Using the Centered Moving Average and a Trending Component 17. Chapter 13: Training, Validating, and Running the Model 18. Other Books You May Enjoy

Training and testing the model

To predict new values using the data that we have, we will follow these steps:

  • Use 80% percent of the data to train and generate the linear regression model.
  • Give the upper and lower models ranges of uncertainty. Remember that a model is just a trend and approximation of the prediction values.
  • Test the linear model with the remaining 20% of the data and see how the model fits with these expected values.
  • Use the model to predict new values using unknown data.

Build the linear model formula with 80% of the data in Figure 10.19:

Figure 10.19 – Linear regression coefficients for building a formula model

Writing a linear regression model formula

Using the coefficients of the linear model, we build the formula for the regression line:

Intercept B0 = -34.8789
B1 material rotation = 0.63
B2 online marketing = 15.699
Predicted sales revenue from model = Intercept B0 + (B1 * material rotation)...
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