Defining causal inference
Picture yourself as a teacher contemplating a curious phenomenon among high school students: the relationship between sleeping late and catching the school bus. An initial hypothesis might be, “Sleeping late causes students to miss their school bus.” This stems from a personal experience: I slept late and consequently missed the bus. However, this hypothesis might be challenged upon observing graduate students, who, despite sleeping late, consistently catch their buses.
This scenario exemplifies the complex, often misleading nature of causality. The observed association—sleeping late and missing buses—doesn’t inherently imply causation. Here, various other factors could be at play. Perhaps high school students have earlier bus schedules, or graduate students, despite sleeping late, can wake up early and not miss their transportation. It’s plausible that the initial observation of sleeping late and causing one to...
